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BMO Strategic Fixed Income Yield Fund – Biweekly Update

December 6, 2024

Duy Le

CFA, Portfolio Manager, BMO Global Asset Management

Portfolio Manager Commentary

The BMO Strategic Fixed Income Yield Field (SFIYF) contains a diversified suite of interest rate structured products with exposure to the US rates curve. The fund has slightly increased its allocation mix for range accurals to front end rates, with the current allocation being 26% in 1y and under rates, 32% in 3-5y rates, 5% in 10y rates and 30% in curve steepeners. Contingent coupons for range accruals are on average between 6.5-8.5% and steepener coupons remain between 8-10%. Range accurals remain within their ranges with an average of around 75bps from the tops of the range.

The rates sell off from the last two months is starting to plateau, kicked off by Trump’s selection of secretary treasury last week. Trump’s nomination of Bessent is seen as a more moderated choice, providing markets comfort that some of the more extreme tariff scenarios can be eliminated. Bessent’s plan is to focus on growth through deregulation, use tariffs as a negotiation tactic which could mean reduced or less time tariffs are enacted, and increase oil production. Rates markets rallied and bear flattened up to 10bps across the board on the news with markets adding rate cuts back into the US curve in April meeting and beyond. Data over the last few weeks was light due to US thanksgiving week but right before the US holiday we did have PCE coming in slightly stronger lead by core services. US rates markets generally looked past this, with rates rallying 4bps over the thanksgiving week. In other news, USDCAD briefly topped 1.415 as Trump’s threaten 25% tariffs to Canada and Mexico if key issues such as illegal migrants and drug smuggling are not addressed. Tariffs could further stifle growth in an already softening Canadian economy, which could cause further US and Canadian rates divergence. Terminal rates in the US are about 100bps higher than Canada’s with Canada expecting to cut at least 25bps in the upcoming December Bank of Canada meeting, while the US market is only pricing in 50% of a 25bps cut. Higher USDCAD does result in an increase to the fund’s cost of hedging, but coupons on interest rate structured products are more attractive in the US where rates remain elevated compared to Canada.

In the latter half of November, we have added positions to 1y and under range accrual. One benefit of the increased front end volatility and central bank uncertainty is that SOFR or overnight rate range accrual pricing has become attractive, ranging from 6-7%. We added a 2mm or 5% of the fund allocation to a SOFR based range accrual, which will benefit more directly from fed cuts. We still believe front end vs long end steepeners will perform as the fed steadily brings rates back under restrictive territory and we will continue pursuing the strategy of prudent range accruals (range accurals 100+ bps in the money), avoiding the 10y and beyond part of the curve for now.

Fund Snapshot

Distributions

Fund Characteristics

Implied Volatility Move Index

Implied Volatility Move Index

US Government Yield Curve

US Government Yield Curve

30 Day Historical Volatility

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